我国外汇储备周期波动与经济周期的实证分析

The Empirical Research on the Relationship Between Foreign Exchange Reserves Periodic Fluctuation and Economy Cycle in China

文章借鉴经济周期的相关理论对外汇储备的波动进行研究,利用H-P滤波法对1979-2009年我国的外汇储备和经济增长的变化进行分析,分别从短周期、中周期和长周期的角度描述了外汇储备增长的周期性波动规律,并总结了外汇储备各周期的特征和外汇储备周期变化与经济周期之间的关系,以方便政策制定者针对不同周期阶段制定科学、合理的应对措施。

Based on the correlative business cycles theory,the periodic fluctuations of the foreign exchange reserves and economic growth of China from 1979 to 2009 are analyzed using H-P filter technique.The characteristics of periodic fluctuations of the foreign exchange reserves were abstracted from short-period cycles,Juglar cycles and long cycles,respectively.The relationship between the periodic fluctuations of the foreign exchange reserves and business cycles is summarized,and based on which relevant policies can be made.