从自然界突变的角度重估经济发展战略

Revaluation of Economic Development Strategy From the Perspective of Natural Mutations

文章从自然界突变的新角度,研究经济发展与生态的关系,以"人的发展"新思维,代替资本与权力垄断的经济模式,重新制定中国未来经济、生态与能源发展战略。以生态经济学方法计算中国生态损失,指出中国目前发展阶段的问题,在现存技术条件下难以迅速摆脱高投入、高消耗和高污染的经济发展模式。文章认为,目前中国还处于重化工业化阶段,内部资源不足以支持长期的高速增长,经济发展势必与生态相矛盾。因此,需要制定出适合中国国情的生态文明的大战略,经济发展必须与生态文明相结合,并注意到自然界可能的突变。中国的基础设施建设和建设生态文明是一个大战略,应该以治水为中心,整治国土,加速水和空的循环;科技进步的重点是节能减排,特别是突破煤炭技术、海水淡化技术等;通过信仰重建,批判奢侈腐化的社会方式,以改善大多数人民生活与健康为目的,确定政绩评价指标;利用10年以内人口年轻、储蓄率高的优势,内部治理奢侈腐化,外部保障资源安全。

This paper analyzes the relationship between economy and ecology from nature mutations.On the basis of ＂Human Development＂,it re-designs the Chinese future development strategy of economy,ecology and energy,which substitute the capital and monopoly economic mode.This paper calculates the lost in ecology in China with a scientific way,points out that in present stage,China still cannot give away intensive resources-consuming development mode.China is still at the stage of heavy industry-leading,which is harm for the environment.Therefore,China should establish its own strategy for ecology protection;the economic development should in line with the ecology protection,that is to say,pay attention to the natural mutations.Suggestions are put forward： keep water and soil,energy saving and emission reduction,technology upgrade,establish a harmonious society.