云南省粮食产能安全主要影响因素的定量分析

Quantitative Analysis on the Influence Factor of Food Security in Yunnan Province

应用灰色关联度分析方法,对云南省1999-2008年粮食产量主要影响因素(耕地面积、粮食播种面积、粮食单产、有效灌溉面积、化肥使用量、受灾面积、成灾面积、农业机械总动力、农村用电量和烟叶产量)进行分析,结果表明:耕地面积和粮食单产对粮食产量的影响居第一位和第二位,对粮食产能安全影响最为突出。其余影响因子的关联度排序依次为:粮食播种面积、有效灌溉面积、烟叶产量、化肥施用量、农业机械总动力、农村用电量、受灾面积和成灾面积。其中,受灾面积和成灾面积的关联序虽然排在10项影响因子的最后两位,但其关联系数均在0.68以上,可见农业自然灾害对粮食产能安全的影响不能忽视。最后根据研究结论提出几点保证云南粮食安全的对策与建议。

From 1999 to 2008 food production influence factor（cultivated land,grain sown area,grain yield,the effective irrigated area,fertilizer use,the affected area,the disaster area,the total power of agricultural machinery in rural areas tobacco consumption and production） in Yunnan Province was analyzed by means of grey correlation,results showed that： cultivated land area and grain yield per unit grain yield of first place and second place,the safety of food production is the most prominent.The remaining factors are ranked by the correlation grain sown area,the effective irrigation area,leaf production,chemical fertilizer,agricultural machinery power,rural electricity,the affected area and the disaster area.Among them,the affected area and disaster area of the incidence was the last two orders although the 10 factors,but the correlation coefficients were above 0.68,it could show that agricultural production capacity of natural disasters on food security implications could not be ignored.Finally,some conclusions based on research solutions to ensure food security in Yunnan countermeasures and suggestions.