供应链系统的可靠性分析

Supply chain system reliability analysis

对研究和提高供应链系统可靠性的重要性与供应链系统可靠性研究的特点进行了分析,在考虑供应链结构与节点企业可靠度基础上提出了供应链系统可靠性分析框架。在供应链系统中导入结构函数表达供应链的结构可靠性,对供应链结构可靠性的性质进行了分析。供应链系统是1个复杂的动态系统,许多影响因素的存在使得企业可靠性具有强烈的随机性,导入供应链系统可靠性概率模型即用供应链系统结构的可靠度函数表达供应链系统的静态可靠性。对复杂的供应链系统,在最小路与最小割集概念基础上,运用最小路集和最小割集结构函数来表示供应链系统的结构函数与供应链系统可靠性概率模型。同时给出了企业结构重要度与概率重要度,提出了供应链系统可靠性的改善策略,最后结合例子分析了系统可靠度函数及其近似估计方法。

From the viewpoints of importance and characteristics of the supply chain system （SCS） in reliability theory, this paper proposes an analysis framework to discuss the SCS reliability properties by considering the reliability of its structure and node enterprises. First, we use the structure function to express the SCS structure reliability, which can be named as structure reliability function （SRF） in this paper, and some reliability properties are analyzed. Second, the SCS is a complicated dynamic system, which means that node enterprises in SCS have uncertainty properties that can be affected easily by many factors in the random environment, so that it is useful to apply the probability models in reliability theory into SCS, that is, static reliability of the SCS can be formulated by SRF. Third, we formulate the structure function and probability model for the complicated SCS using the techniques of minimal path sets and minimal cut sets. Furthermore, we discuss the interested degrees of the structure and probability of the node enterprises in SCS and propose some policies to improve the SCS reliability. Actual examples are given to explain the SCS reliability function and its approximate estimation method.