外国直接投资在我国各地区的资本效应研究——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

Crowding-out/Crowding-in Effect of FDI on Domestic Investment:Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel data

改革开放以来,外国直接投资通过扩大全社会固定资产规模和国内储蓄直接增加了我国国内资本积累;通过挤入/挤出效应影响我国国内资本规模。本文首先对FDI的直接资本效应进行实证分析,然后采用1991-2009年省级面板数据,考察我国总体以及东、中、西部地区FDI的资本挤出/挤入效应。研究结果表明:FDI在我国总体样本、东部地区存在中性效应;在西部地区只通过其滞后项影响国内投资,资本效应为中性;中部地区挤出/挤入效应不明确。此外,东部FDI对地区资本存量起到了积极的促进作用,而中、西部地区则对当地资本形成起到了一定程度的抑制作用,西部地区FDI转化为国内投资速度慢于其它地区。

FDI directly increases capital accumulation by enlarging the scale of social fixed capital and domestic savings after the open policy in China. Meanwhile, FDI influences the volume of domestic capital indirectly by its crowding-out/crowding-in effect on. This paper analyzes the direct effect on domestic capital, and constitutes a panel data model of impact of FDI on domestic investment by employing provincial panel data in the period of 1991-2009 to investigate the crowding-out/crowding-in effect of FDI on domestic investment in overall China, eastern, middle and western regions respectively. Conclusions are drew that there exists neutral effect of FDI on domestic investment in overall China and eastern region, no significant crowding-out/crowding-in effect in middle region, and that only the lag variable of FDI impacts domestic investment in western region with neutral effect. Moreover, FDI plays an important role in promoting the capital stock in eastern region while curbing the capital accumulation in middle and western ones. The transformation speed from FDI into domestic capital in western region lags behind other regions in China.