东盟贸易便利化对中国制造业产品出口影响的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Impact of ASEAN Trade Facilitation on Chinese Manufactured Goods Export Growth

本文运用机场基础设施质量、海关程序负担和贸易壁垒普遍度三个指标衡量了贸易便利化程度,并应用国际贸易引力模型实证分析了东盟贸易便利化措施对中国-东盟区域制造业产品出口的影响。实证研究结果表明:东盟机场基础设施质量的改善对中国-东盟区域制造业产品出口有显著的影响。东盟机场基础设施质量等级每提升1%,区域制造业产品出口将增加1.48%。而海关程序负担和贸易壁垒普遍度的改善对中国-东盟区域制造业产品出口的影响不显著。在此基础上,本文设计了两个模拟方案,模拟分析了东盟贸易便利化程度的加深对中国制造业产品出口的影响程度。结果表明:如果东盟每个国家机场基础设施质量都提升到区域平均水平(5.2),则中国制造业产品出口额将提高39.34%。如果东盟每个国家机场基础设施质量等级提升到区域最高水平(6.9),则中国制造业产品对东盟出口额将增长70.95%。

This paper measures the trade facilitation using indexes of airport infrastructure, custom burden and prevalence of trade barriers. It also empirically analyzes the impact of ASEAN trade facilitation on China-ASEAN regional manufactured goods export performance. The results indicate that the quality improvement of ASEAN airport infrastructure has significant effect on China-ASEAN regional manufactured goods export flow. Specifically, 1 percent of quality improvement can increase regional trade by 1.48 percent. However, custom burden and prevalence of trade barriers has insignificant effect. On the basis of previous estimated parameters＇ coefficient, the paper designs two simulation scenarios to analyze the impact of ASEAN trade facilitation on Chinese manufactured goods export. The results tell us if every country in ASEAN can enhance their airport infrastructure to regional average level （5.2）, Chinese manufactured goods export to ASEAN could increase by 39.34%. If every country in ASEAN can enhance their airport infrastructure to the regional highest level （6.9）, Chinese manufactured goods export to ASEAN could increase by 70.95%.