房地产政策仿真研究与实践

A Study of Shenzhen's Commercial Housing System through Simulation based on System Dynamics

为了进一步提高房地产宏观调控的科学性与前瞻性,有必要建立商品住宅系统政策仿真模型。该模型以系统动力学为方法论,深入分析了住宅系统内部各因素,以及内部因素与外部系统之间的反馈关系。基于建立的住宅仿真模型能够实现各项调控政策的政策实验,将各种政策变量作为输入值输入政策仿真模型,从而得到房地产调控政策对市场各重要指标影响的输出值。通过对输出值的分析,能够实现调控政策实施效果前瞻性的分析和把握。以市场化程度较高的深圳房地产市场作为研究样本,利用仿真系统进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,基于住宅系统政策仿真系统所做出的政策决策将更加科学和有效。

In order to further improve the scientific validity and predictability of government＇s regulatory policies targeting the commercial housing market, it is necessary to construct a commercial housing policy simulation model. Based on system dynamics as the methodology, this model can provide in-depth study of the various internal elements of the housing system and supply feedbacks for the interaction between the internal and external factors. We can perform different experiments testing the outcomes of governmental intervention in the market by setting the different policy variables and observe the output results, achieving better predictability of the real effect of the intended policy measures. Using the simulation system with the highly commercialized residential housing market in Shenzhen as our research sample, our positivist study shows that policy decisions made on the basis of intensive use of such a model will ensure improved effectiveness and validity for such policies.