论近期日元升值原因及对中日贸易收支的影响——基于1988-2009年时间序列数据

Discussion on Reason for Recent Appreciation of JP Yen and Its Effect on China-Japan’s Trade Balance:Based on Time Series Data of 1988-2009

2007年下半年以来,日元汇率出现大幅上升,其主因是美元的持续性贬值以及日美利差缩小导致的短期套利资金回流。一个基于1988-2009年的时间序列数据模型表明,中日双边名义汇率对中日贸易收支影响显著,近期日元升值可能有效改善中日贸易逆差,这也反映了我国出口产品与发达国家的水平竞争性的不断增加。但基于当前日本宏观经济发展趋势,日元升值改善中日贸易收支逆差的效果具有局部性和短期性。我国政府应抓住日元升值机会调整储备结构,同时在长期内提高出口产品国际竞争力来应对中日贸易逆差。

The JP Yen took on an appreciation trend after the second half of 2007, and the major reasons were the continuous depreciation of US dollar and the inflow of short-time interest-chasing capital. A time series model based on the data of 1988-2009 shows that the bilateral exchange rate of RMB and JP Yen had an significant effect on China and Japan＇ s trade balance and the recent appreciation of JP Yen may effectively ameliorate China＇ s trade deficit to Japan, which shows that the competitive level between Chinese export products and the products of developed countries was increasing. However, under the back-ground of Japan＇ s economic trends, this mechanism was limited and can not last long. Chinese government is supposed to take the chance to modify the structure of foreign reserve and raise its products＇ competitiveness in export trades.