映秀镇磨子沟泥石流历史发育演化分析及危险性预测

Historical Development Analysis of Mozigou Debris Flow in Yingxiu Town and Risk Forecast

磨子沟为四川映秀境内岷江左岸的一级支沟,乃一大规模古泥石流沟。汶川地震在沟域内形成大量的滑坡、崩塌堆积物,而213国道恰由沟口通过。因此,预测评价沟内泥石流爆发的危险性对213国道的防灾减灾及对该区古泥石流形成的认识都具有重要意义。该文采用地质分析及危险度计算的综合方法预测了磨子沟泥石流的危险度属轻度危险。

Mozigou is a first grade ravine of the left-bank in Minjiang river of Yingxiu town in Sichuan province,which is an ancient and large-scale debris flow gully.The 213 national highway goes through the outlet of the Mozigou.After 5·12 Wenchuan earthquake,the abundant rock dilapidation and landslide are induced within the river basin.Therefore,the risk forecast and evaluation of Mozigou debris flow has the important significance for the disaster prevention and reduction work of 213 national highway and the understanding of ancient debris flow formation in the area.Adopting the comprehensive method including geologic analysis and calculation of debris flow risk,it predicts that the risk degree of Mozigou debris flow is mild.