成为世界第一大经济体?

Gain and Loss of Becoming the Greatest Economy

各种预测表明,中国什么时候成为世界第一大经济体只是时间问题。关键是,这对中国企业意味着什么？中国是一个大国吗？这是一个非常简单而有趣的问题。关注规模总量的人倾向于中国是一个大国,而侧重人均指标的人会提出,

Is China a great power？ Those who pay more attention to economic aggregate may say ＂yes＂, and those who hold per capita index to be more important tend to say ＂no＂. According to the IMF World Economic Outlook issued in April 2011, the GDP of the U.S. rose to USD14,700 billion, almost triple China＇s GDP, which was USD5,900 billion. But the difference is not unchangeable. Some researchers predicted that China＇s economy would surpass the U.S. in certain years. IMF argued this would happen in 2016. Robert Feenstra, a professor in UC Davis, said it would come in 2014. There＇s difference between their calculations. The World Economic Outlook measures GDP in terms of the dollar, while the IMF and the professor do that in terms of purchasing power parity （PPP）. Arvind Subramanian, a researcher from the famous Peterson Institute for International Economics, even believes that China＇s economy has already exceeded the U.S. in 2010, if measured in PPP. If any one of these forecasts becomes true, what＇s the meaning of that？ Positively, they are commercial opportunities; negatively, policy barriers.