汪家寨矿涌水量非线性即时预报模型研究

THE STUDY OF IMMEDIATE PREDICTING NONLINEAR MODEL OF MINE DISCHARGE IN WANGJIAZHAI COAL MINE

汪家寨煤矿涌水量主要受控于大气降水，为了及时预报矿井涌水量，利用矿井涌水量序列和降水量序列，建立涌水量非线性即时预报模型。从涌水量和降水量的互相关分析得知，涌水量滞后降水量约０～１ 个月。应用时间序列混合门限自回归模型建立了涌水量预测模型Ｔａｒｓｏ［２，（１，１），（１，１）］，利用此模型对１９９１ 年的涌水量进行了预测，误差率在１０％ ～２０％ 之间，满足生产需要。模型既考虑了涌水量序列的自相关性，又考虑了涌水量、降水量的互相关性，适用于涌水量受控于大气降水量的南方矿井。

In Wangjiazhai Coal Mine,the discharge is mainly controlled by precipitation.In order to predict discharge,discharge series and precipitation series are used to establish immediate discharge nonlinear predicting model.By the mutual relation analysis between the discharge series and the precipitation series,the discharge is 0～1 month later than the precipitation.Applying the time series blend threshold autoregression model,the immediate discharge nonliner predicing model Tarso[2,(1,1),(1,1)] is established.The discharge in 1991 is predicted,and the error ratio is 10%～20%,which meet the requirements of mining.Not only the selfrelation of discharge,but also the mutual relation between the discharge and the precipitiation is considered in the model,it is applicable to the coal mines in the South of China in which discharge is controlled by precipitation.