国际能源机构释放战略石油储备的原因及其对石油市场的影响

Causes and impact of IEA release of SPRs onto the world oil market

在国际油价高位回落的时候,国际能源机构(IEA)6月23日宣布,各成员国将动用6000万桶战略石油储备分30天投放市场,以填补利比亚供应中断导致的供应缺口和压低油价支撑全球脆弱的经济复苏。其真实意图耐人寻味,是出于对世界经济复苏放缓的担心?表达对欧佩克未能就增产达成一致的不满?还是为美国继续维持宽松货币政策做铺垫?释放战略石油储备对石油市场的影响已经显现,虽然短期内将在一定程度上缓解供需偏紧态势,但长期不会改变供需基本态势;短期内对油价形成利空,但长期形成支撑。从技术分析看,本轮投机资金获利回吐接近尾声;从总体上看,世界经济前景虽有波折,但后期仍看好。预计2011年三季度WTI原油均价为105美元/桶,较二季度提高5美元/桶以上,波动范围为85～125美元/桶。进入四季度,预计全球石油需求将较三季度增加30万桶/日左右,但非欧佩克供应将增加80万桶/日,供需形势有所好转。同时,四季度将是投机资金拉高出仓的时间,国际油价可能出现一定下滑。

On June 23rd,the very moment the international oil price had begun falling from a high level,International Energy Agency(IEA) announced that its member states would release 60 million barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserves(SPRs) onto the market within 30 days,so as to fill the supply gap due to the supply disruption in Libya and to lower the oil price in support of recovery of the fragile global economy.However,its full intention is uncertain:was this action taken exclusively out of the concern for world economic recovery,or also out of dissatisfaction with OPEC's failure to agree on output increases,or intended to pave the way for the US's next Quantitative Easing program? The impact has begun to be seen:although it may help to alleviate the tight short-term supply & demand situation,the basic long-term supply & demand situation will not change.Though bad news to producers in the short-term,it will eventually support oil prices.It is bringing an end to profit-taking by speculative funds.Overall,the world economy might twist and turn in the short term,but is expected to do well later on.The third quarter average WTI crude oil price is expected to be 105 dollars per barrel,which is 5 dollars per barrel higher than that in the second quarter,and it will fluctuate from 85 to 125 dollars per barrel.In the fourth quarter global oil demand is expected to increase by about 300,000 barrels per day compared with the third quarter,whereas non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 800,000 barrels per day and that could improve the supply & demand situation.Meanwhile,the fourth quarter would be the time for more speculative capital to bail out after sustaining the oil price and that may lead to a decline in international oil prices.