ARIMA模型在医院卫生消耗材料需求量预测中的应用

The ARIMA Model and Its Application in the Prediction of Hospital Material Consumption

目的 阐述ARIMA模型拟合时间序列的方法和步骤,并将其应用于医院卫生消耗材料需求量的预测,为医院设备管理人员提供决策依据。方法 利用SAS软件系统,求解适宜的ARIMA模型,据所得误差评价预测效果。结果 通过对3种卫生消耗材料需求量的预测,相对误差在10％左右,预测效果较为可靠。结论 医院卫生消耗材料需求量的近期预测中引入时间序列的ARIMA模型分析方法,能够对实际工作产生积极的指导意义。

Objective The approach and procedure to fit time series with ARIMA models are discussed briefly. The application to forecast the hospital material consumption is given to help the administrative personnel perform management scientifically. Methods Proper ARIMA models are obtained with the SAS system and the effectiveness is evaluated. Results The errors of prediction to three kinds of hospital material consumption are around 10%, which show a satisfactory effectiveness. Conclusion It is both necessary and practical to apply the approach of ARIMA models in fitting time series to predict hospital material consumption within a short lead time.