中国经济结构调整对宏观经济波动的“熨平效应”分析

STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND STABILIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLE

本文利用方差分解方法,分别研究了在支出法和生产法GDP核算下,经济结构调整是否对宏观经济波动具有"熨平"效应。结果发现:(1)无论是以支出法还是生产法来衡量GDP,经济结构调整都对宏观经济波动具有有限的"熨平效应"。(2)结构调整之所以对宏观经济的"熨平"作用有限,是因为中国自1986年以来的结构调整方向有一定偏差。(3)第二产业内部的结构调整"熨平"宏观经济波动的作用较强。(4)要进一步发挥经济结构调整对宏观经济波动的"熨平效应",需要提高消费占GDP的比重,提高波动性小的第三产业中各行业占GDP的比重,同时减少波动性大的第二产业中各行业占GDP的比重,控制第二产业内部高波动性行业的发展速度或努力使其波动性下降。

Using the method of variance decompositions, this paper assessed the role of compositional shifts on macroeconomic stabilization. Our decomposition of output growth volatility indicated as follows： （1） in calculating GDP both by expenditures and by producer, the main effect on macroeconomic stabiliza- tion is not compositional effect but volatility effect; （2） the incorrect direction of compositional shifts ted to a limited effect on macroeconomic stabilization in China since 1986; （3） The compositional shifts in the second industry contributed to macroeconomic stabilization significantly; （4） some policies of compositional shifts, such as increasing the sector shares of the consumption and the third industry, reducing the vola-tility of manufacture sector, would lead to macroeconomic stabilization.