存贷款利差结构变化对利率市场化改革的启示

The Enlightenment of the Structural Change of Spread between Interest Rates for Savings Deposits and Loans on Interest Rate Marketization Reform

本文从商业银行存贷款实际利差结构变化的角度出发,分析影响实际利差变动的主要因素,并据此评估利率市场化对商业银行经营带来的冲击。分析认为,商业银行可能采取非理性价格竞争手段扩大市场份额,并通过增加信贷规模方式来应对利率市场化导致的利差收窄。对此,中央银行应尽快建立存款保险制度,并加强通过间接手段来影响市场利率的能力。

According to the fluctuation of real spread between interest rates for savings deposits and loans of commercial banks, the paper analyzes main influential factors to the fluctuation of real spread, and estimates the impact of interest rates marketization on the operation of commercial banks. Generally speaking, commercial banks may enlarge market shares by non-rational price competition, and offset the decrease of net interest income by credit expansion. The central bank ought to establish deposit insurance system and strengthen the ability to impact market interest rates in indirect ways.