行人违章过街行为心理成因分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction on Pedestrian Red-time Crossing Behavior

为深入了解行人在交叉口违章过街行为,调查影响行人在长周期信号控制交叉口违章过街的心理成因,采用计划行为理论(TPB)制作了行人违章过街心理行为问卷。利用此问卷,对上海居民进行过街违章心理研究,得到250个覆盖各年龄层的有效样本。信度效度分析验证了行人违章过街心理行为问卷能够用来解析行人的违章过街心理成因。在对问卷中自述违章过街行为和心理要素的聚类分析筛除明显隐瞒自身违章过街行为的行人后,对心理要素和现实行为违章行为进行判别分析。结果表明:问卷中2个TPB的心理要素:知觉行为控制和行为意向能够用来推测行人的实际违章行为,准确率为73.9%。其中,代表行人对交叉口交通情况和自身时间约束的心理要素知觉行为控制对行人违章行为有关键的影响。

For better understanding of pedestrian waiting and crossing behavior in red signal,a questionnaire was made based on the TPB to investigate 3 main factors of pedestrian＇s illegal crossing under long waiting time.A survey was launched in Shanghai and 250 effective samples were gotten.Analysis of reliability and validity proves the pedestrian psychology-behavior questionnaire based on the theory of planned behavior can be used to analyze the cause of pedestrian red-time crossing behavior.Cluster analysis was used to eliminate the samples of pedestrians concealing their red-time crossing behavior and discriminant analysis was applied.The results show that two key elements of TPB： Perceived behavioral control and behavior intention can be used to predict pedestrian red-time crossing behavior in real life with the accuracy of 73.9%.Perceived behavioral control that stands for the restriction of traffic condition and personal condition shows key influence on pedestrian red-time crossing behavior.