确定警告值的时间序列数据分析法

Determination of UCL Based on Failure Sequence Analysis

民用航空器的故障率警告值在民用航空器可靠性维修中起着重要的作用,本文提出了一种确定民用航空器故障率警告值的时间序列数据分析方法,这一方法可以较好地处理那些故障率由于受气候、环境等影响而发生周期性变化的零部件或系统,为它们的故障率预测和可靠性维修提供一种宏观的分析方法。文中最后根据某航空公司三种机型各自的重要事件的数据统计,给出了用该方法计算得到的故障率的估计值和实际值的比较,并对下一个月的故障率的警告值进行了预测。

An important part is played in the reliability centered maintenance of civil aero vehicles for their alert value (or upper control line,UCL). A method to determine the UCL based on the failure sequence analysis is presented. The method is suitable for many components or systems, of which the failure rate is cyclically fluctuated due to the weather and the environment. Some real data obtained from an airline company are employed and then analyzed by using this method, and it is shown that this method is satisfactory for the analysis of cyclic failure data. The more accurate forecast will be achieved for larger failure data and longer duration.