未来20年中国农村劳动力非农化转移的潜力和趋势分析

The Analysis on the Potential and Trend of the Non-agricultural Transfer of Chinese Rural Labor in the Following 20 Years

农村劳动力非农化是城市化过程中的必然现象,学术界对此研究很多,然而由于对农村非农化劳动力的概念以及基本数据等方面存在不统一等问题,因此一些基本研究存在较大的争议,而关于未来农村劳动力非农化转移的潜力则缺乏专门的系统定量研究。本文通过未来农村劳动力人口的变动预测、农业劳动力需求预测以及劳动力非农化转移的趋势分析及综合比较,测算了中国未来20年内农村劳动力转移的潜力,研究发现,未来中国农村每年农业剩余的劳动力规模将逐年减少,到2030年农村剩余总的劳动力将在1亿～2.5亿之间。而近期内农村劳动力非农化转移存量还有一定的增长空间,但因为其在今后10年内将超过总的农业剩余劳动力潜力,从而增长将会趋于停止,同时农村剩余的可供转移的劳动力也将在5～10年内趋于零。

The non -agriculturalization of rural labors, which has caught much research attention, is a necessary phenomenon in the process of urbanization. However, conflicts exsits on some basic issues due to the disagreement on the concept and data of the rural non - agricultural labor force, and there is a lack of systemic and quantitative research on the potentials of rural labor＇ s non -agricultural transfer in the future. By predicting the changing trend of future rural labor force, the demand for agricultural labors, and the trend of rural labor＇ s non - agricultural transfer, this paper estimated the potentials of Chinese rural labor＇ s non - agricultural transfer in the next 20 years. It found that the surplus labors in the countryside will decrease annually, and its total number will range between 100 million and 250 million by 2030. Although there is still some increase potential of the stock of rural labor＇ s non - agricultural transfer in the near future, its increase will approach to zero in 10 years, and rural transferrable surplus labor will also approach to zero in about 5 to 10 years.