摘要
采用多市场均衡模型,测算我国大米供给、需求以及库存方面的价格和非价格弹性,并对大米的生产、需求及库存量进行了预测。结果显示,大米单产的短期弹性为0.046,大米种植面积的短期弹性为0.161。农村和城市地区大米需求价格弹性分别为-0.115和-0.140,需求收入弹性分别为-0.157和-0.216。对大米产需及库存量预测显示,未来5～10年间,我国大米的总产量呈缓慢增长趋势,总消费量呈下降趋势,库存量保持平稳。
This paper provides empirical evidence on the supply, demand and stock of China rice from the econometric estimation of the elasticity with respect to the price and non-price factors. The result indicates that the elasticity value of the own price is 0.046, the elasticity of rice price is 0.161 in the short run. The price elasticity of demand is -0.115 and -0.140, the income elasticity of demand is -0.157 and -0.216. The predicted result shows that the total consumption will have a decreasing trend, but the total production will have an increasing slightly trend and the net export of China rice will rise in the coming decades.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第7期51-56,共6页
Reform
