基于TANG模型的西安国际旅游成长实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Growth of Xi'an International Tourism Based on TANG Model

文章运用旅游地非线性成长模型(TANG模型)对50年来西安国际旅游成长进行实证分析。分析指出,西安国际旅游第一周期为新中国成立至改革开放前阶段,规模极小,受政府制度、资源与产品创新、大规模突发事件影响极大;从客流量与旅游收入两个指标体系入手,讨论1978年以来的第二、第三周期,通过模拟方程、成长曲线及相关特征值实现了不同周期、不同指标的横向与纵向比较,同时在与统计值进行对比的过程中,清晰地反映出异常波动情况,判断波动原因,对旅游地成长过程有了更为清晰的认识。

The paper, by applying TANG Model, makes an empirical analysis of the growth of Xian international tourism in the past fifty years. The analysis points out that the first cycle was from the founding of New China to the stage before opening- up, with very small scale and greatly affected by the government policies, tourism resources and product innovation as well as large scale of emergency events. The second and third cycles since 1978 are discussed from two indicator systems of tourist flows and tourism revenue. Through simulation equations, growth curves and relevant eigenvalues, we achieve the horizontal and crosswise comparlons of different cycles and different indicators. Meanwhile, in the process of the comparison of statistical value, the abnormal fluctuation can be clearly reflected and the cause of fluctuation can be judged, which is helpul to our clear recognition of the development of tourist areas.