国际资本流动管制效果的综合评价:基于文献挖掘的方法

The Composite Effectiveness Assessment of International Capital Flow Control Based on Literature Mining

资本管制作为一项宏观经济管理政策,被广大国家,尤其是被发展中国家和新兴经济体政府广泛应用。管制政策是否有效是政府和学术界热切关注的焦点。关于资本管制效果方面的学术研究,存在几个问题:(1)评价资本管制效果的基准不统一,进而评价指标选取各异;(2)评价指标选取不全面,多针对一、二个政策目标;(3)不同国家不同时期,对资本管制效果的评价存在显著差异。本文针对这些问题,构建两个资本管制效果评价指标,据以对现有资本管制效果方面的文献的研究结论进行信息综合,既得到了资本管制单个政策目标实现方面的文献信息综合,亦获得了资本管制政策效果的综合全面评价。得出的结论主要有:对资本流入的管制在改变资本流入结构方面效果最好,而对资本流出的管制则在维护货币政策独立性方面最有效果。不论是对资本流入还是资本流出的管制,在减轻汇率压力方面基本无效果。最后,对我国的资本管制政策提出了相应的完善建议。

Capital control,as a macroeconomic policy,is applied widely by most countries,especially in developing and emerging countries.The effect of capital control is paid close attention by government and academia.Some constraints faced by researches on effect of capital control are summarized as follows.Firstly,there is not a consistent standard for assessment of capital control effect.Secondly,the selection of index is incomplete.Most of papers focus on one or two policy targets.Thirdly,there are significant differences of capital control assessment between different countries and periods.To solve these problems,this paper constructs two indexes by doing a comprehensive survey of a number of research works published during 1995-2009.It could reflect realization on single policy target.At the same time,it also could reflect composite assessment of capital control effect.The main conclusions include： control on capital inflow is the most effective way in changing capital flow structure while control on capital outflow is the most effective way in maintaining independence of monetary policy.Control on capital flow has no effect in mitigating the exchange rate pressure.At last,the paper gives some policy suggestions.