在线渠道消费者动态品牌选择购买率预测

Forecasting the Purchase Rate of Online Consumer's Dynamic Brand Choice

对在线商城来说,如果能找到在线消费者购买率的规律,就可以有针对性地设计相应的营销策略。可以说,购买率是比消费者的人口特征更为直接的分辨消费者重要性的指标。由于抽离了真实身份的限制,以及存在更多选项,使得在线渠道消费者的消费行为比之传统渠道消费者来说更难预测,其中就包括购买率指标。基于BG/NBD模型,以中国某网上商城的消费者实际消费行为的面板数据分析为基础,研究和鉴别在线渠道消费者购买率。根据消费者前26周的消费数据来预测后27周的购买次数,具有较高的拟合度,有助于在线商城精确预测消费者的购买率,并依此对开展营销活动提供指导。

If the online store could find the law of online consumer＇s purchase rate,then it could design the related marketing strategy.That is to say that purchase rate is the key indicator to directly identify the consumer compare to the demographic variables.Without limitation of the real identity and with more choices online,it is harder to forecast the online consumer behavior than the offline consumer behavior such as purchase rate.It is based on the BG/NBD model and the panel data of online consumer consumption in one online store in China to study and identify the purchase rate of online consumer.It uses the before-26-week data to forecast the purchase frequency of after-27-week with good fitness which is helpful for online store to precisely forecast the online consumer＇s purchase rate and guide for the marketing activities.