“十二五”及2020年电力需求预测研究

Research on Forecasting Electricity Demand of the 12^(th) Five-year and 2020

准确地把握未来10年的电力需求走势是做好电力规划、安排电力建设的重要基础。考虑到不同部门电力需求具有不同的决定因素和机制,本文把全社会用电量分为居民生活用电、农业用电、工业用电、建筑业用电和服务业用电等五个部分,构建、拟合不同的电力需求方程,预测电力需求。预测的主要结果是:"十二五"期间全社会用电量年均增长率约为7.8%,2015年用电量超过6万亿kWh,"十三五"期间的年均增长率为6.1%2,020年用电量接近8.2万亿kWh。未来10年,单位产值用电量将逐步下降,电力消费增长率将低于GDP增长率,电力需求弹性分别为0.84和0.72。电力需求结构将发生显著变化,到2020年居民生活用电占全社会用电比重为20%左右,工业用电比重将从当前的73%下降到2020年的63%。

It is essential to predict electricity demand in the next ten years for power planning and construction.Considering various factors and mechanisms determining electricity demand of various sectors,this paper divides the total electricity consumption into five parts： resident,agriculture,industry,construction,and service sectors and establishes different demand equations to make predictions for the electricity demand.The results show that the total electricity consumption will grow at an annual rate of 7.8% during 12th Five-Year-Plan period,which would be more than 6×1012 kWh in 2015 while the annual growing rate will be 6.1% during the 13th Five-Year-Plan period.The total figure will reach nearly 8.2×1012kWh in 2020;In the next decade,the electric power consumption per unit output value will gradually decrease.The growth rate of electricity consumption would be lower than that of GDP with the electricity demand elasticity being 0.84 and 0.72,respectively.The electricity demand structure would change significantly.By 2020,the resident consumption will account for about 20% of the overall electricity consumption in the society with the proportion for industrial electricity consumption declining from 73% to 63%.