中国30省区碳排放时空格局及其影响因素的灰色关联分析

Analysis of Carbon Emission Spatiotemporal Patterns and Grey Incidence of Factors Influencing Carbon Emission in 30 Provinces in China

本文对1995-2007年我国30省区碳排放量和碳排放类型的时空格局进行了深入分析,并在此基础上,通过运用灰色关联分析法,测算了11个省区1997-2007年碳排放量影响因素的灰色关联度。研究结果表明:在本文的研究时序内(1995-2007年),我国30省区的碳排放总量和排放类型都呈现出明显的、一致的阶段性,即1995-2001年的变化不大,2002-2007年的碳排放量急速增长、碳排放类型发生显著变化。在造成碳排放量急速增长、碳排放类型发生显著变化的三因素(人均消费、人口总数、碳排放强度)中,人均消费与碳排放量的关联度最大,对碳排放量的解释作用最大;人口总数、碳排放强度次之。因此,结合"十二五"期间提高居民消费能力、扩大内需将是我国调整经济结构首要任务,我国除在生产领域积极开展节能减排、发展低碳经济外,还应通过政府引领、社会组织积极推进、公民广泛参与发展低碳消费方式。

In this paper,we analyzed spatiotemporal patterns of carbon emission between 1995 and 2007 in 30 provinces in China,and then estimated grey incidence degree of factors affecting carbon emission between 1997 and 2007 in 11 provinces.In our time-series（1995-2007）,carbon emission and its types showed the feature of obvious and consistent phaseds： the change was not obvious between 1995 and 2001,but since 2002 carbon emissions burgeoned and its types changed significantly between 2002 and 2007.Among the three factors（consumption per person,population,and carbon emission intensity）,which led to the change of carbon emissions between 2002 and 2007,consumption per person had the biggest grey incidence degree with carbon emissions,which meant it was most effective to explain the change,followed by population,and carbon emission intensity.Nowadays,improving resident consumption abilities and enlarging domestic demands are the top priorities in adjusting economic structures,so we should carry out energy saving and pollutant reduction actively and develop low-carbon economy in the field of production.Besides,we ought to propose low-carbon consumption by means of government guide,social organization promotion and citizen participation.