基于主成分分析的上市公司财务危机预警模型研究

A Research on the Warning Model of Financial Crisis Prediction Based on Principal Component Analysis

本文以我国上市公司为研究对象,选取2009年被ST的上市公司作为财务危机样本组,共61家,同时选取与财务危机组同行业,资产规模在10%差异之内的61家非财务危机上市公司作为配对样本,共计122家(61组)上市公司的财务数据进行研究。从这61组中随机选取31组配对样本作为学习样本组,用来构建财务困境预测模型,另外30组样本作为检验样本组,用来检验预测模型的有效性。

Based on industry categories and general asset scale（within 10% margin）,this paper picks out 122 companies（61 groups）from Chinese listed companies as the research objectives.61 companies which have been specially treated in 2009 as the financial crisis sample and the same number of normal companies have been selected by the principle of paring as the training sample.And we select 31 from 61groups by random as modeling sample and the other 30 groups as testing sample.