大庆油田税负的回归预测模型及其分析

Analysis of the variation of tax burden in Daqing oilfield and regression model for forecasting tax burden

新税制的实施对石油企业产生极为深刻的影响,根据大庆油田近年来纳税情况,运用数理统计方法,对新税制实施前后大庆油田税负变化进行回归分析,说明税制改革后大庆油田税负逐年上升。通过建立的回归预测模型,预测出未来10年大庆油田税负将呈上升趋势。其税负上升原因与国家提高原油价格和固定资产比重偏大有关。

A new tax system has a great influence on the petroleum enterprises. According to the tax burden of Daqing oilfield in the current years and results of mathematical statistics, the regression analysis on the tax burden caused by the tax reform in Daqing oilfield is made. It shows that the tax burden of petroleum enterprises is increasing year by year after tax reform. The forecast results with the model show that the tax burden of Daqing oil field will increase in the next ten years. The increase of tax burden is related to the fact that the price of crude oil is raised in our country and the proportion of fixed assets is on the high proportion.