基于主成分分析的商品住宅价格预测研究——以西安市为例

Prediction of Commodity Housing Prices Based on Principal Component Analysis ——Take Xi'an for Example

近几年来,随着我国社会经济的不断发展以及城市化速度的加快,国内各大城市的商品住宅价格不断攀升,即便是在政府不断加强宏观调控力度的情况下,商品住宅的价格仍然呈走高趋势。针对这种现象,对房地产市场商品住宅价格的研究就显得十分必要。文章首先对西安市住宅房地产市场价格进行了分析;然后,在此基础上运用描述性统计分析方法有针对性的分析了影响西安市住宅价格的各个因素,并引入主成分分析方法进一步对影响西安市住宅价格的因素进行了实证研究,并得出结论。其次,基于主成分分析的结果,并结合计量经济学回归预测理论建立住宅价格预测模型,并得出西安市未来几年的住宅销售均价。最后,在预测结果的基础上并结合西安市住宅房地产市场的具体情况,对政府提出了使住宅市场健康稳定发展的政策建议。

In recent years,with the constant development of social economy and urbanization and the domestic price of commodity housing in major cities continues to rise,despite of the macro-control efforts from the government,the price of commercial housing still shows a higher trend.In response to this phenomenon,it is necessary to study the prices of commercial housing in the real estate market.First,it analyzes the residential housing prices in Xi＇an,and then targets at the impact of all factors affecting the housing prices in Xi＇an with the descriptively statistical analysis.Second,it does an empirical study on the factors influencing house prices in Xi＇an,with the introduction of principal component analysis.Third,it sets up a model about predicting housing price and draw sales price in the next few years in Xi＇an residential,based on the results of principal component analysis and regression with econometric forecasting theory;Finally,it presents relevant policies and recommendations to the government on the healthy and stable development of the housing market on the basis of the predictive results in a specific situation.