应用季节趋势模型分析恶性肿瘤患者的发展动态

APPLICATION OF SEASON TREND MODEL ON ANALYZING PATIENTS WITH MALIGNANT TUMOR

目的了解2005～2010年阳江市某大型综合医院恶性肿瘤住院患者发病年份、年龄及疾病分类的构成,并预测2011～2012年度该院恶性肿瘤患者人数,为医院的优质管理决策提供科学依据。方法整理该院2005～2010年《医院疾病分类年报表》资料,进行统计描述和季节趋势预测。结果 2005～2010年我院性肿瘤患者住院人数占全院住院总人数的6.75%,预计2011～2012年恶性肿瘤住院患者分别为例、例,且逐年有明显增加趋势。结论该院恶性肿瘤住院人数在同期总住院人数中占有相当大的比重,且有逐年增加的趋势。医院管理者应合理分配卫生资源,加强加快肿瘤科的建设,创造更有效的社会效益及经济效益。

Objective To analyze the proportion of malignant tumor inpatients in the large - scale integrated hospital in Yangjiang City between 2005 and 2010 and forecast the malignant tumor inpatients of the hospital from 2011 to 2012, which would provide scientific foundation for hospital administrators. Methods The data of all malignant tumor inpatients were collected from the annals of classified diseases in the hospital between 2005 and 2010. The statistical description and Seasonal Trend Model were used to analyze and forecast. Results The number of malignant tumor inpatients accounted for 6.75% of total inpatients between 2005 and 2010 in the hospital and will be up to 2570 and 2790 in the next two years respectively, which is forecasted using seasonal trend model. There is an increasing trend for it. Conclusion In the same hospital total number of this large polyclinic, malignant tumor account for a large proportion. Hospital managers should allocate reasonably health resources and strengthen the construction of accelerated oncology to create a more effective social and economic benefit.