“实需排模比值”在荆州地区洪涝灾害评估中的应用

Ratio of Actual Drainage Modulus to Needed Drainage Modulus Applied to Estimate Flood Disaster

使用荆州地区1960—2005的气象观测资料和历史洪涝灾情资料,尝试用降水量、前期影响雨量、排涝量、作物耐涝状况的"实需排模比值"评估洪涝灾害,并与实际灾情进行对比。结果表明:"实需排模比值"法对洪涝灾害的核灾、评估都有较好的效果,能较准确的判定是否发生洪涝灾害及灾害的严重程度。

In order to find out the influence of flood-producing factors,flood-producing environment and hazrad bearing body in the flood estimation,the ＂ratio of actual drainage modulus to needed drainage modulus＂,with consideration of the precipitation,the antecedent precipitation,water-logging amount and the crop＇s waterlogging tolerance,is used to estimate the flood and is compared with the actual disaster.The results show that the verification and the estimation of the disaster can be well done.