农作物产量对夏季累积高温的气候响应——以南京市为例

Climatic Response of Crop Yields to Summer Cumulative High Temperature

利用南京站1949—2008年逐日气温、逐月降水距平百分率资料及南京市统计年鉴数据,分析农作物产量对夏季累积高温的气候响应特征。结果表明:1949年以来南京市夏季累积高温呈波动上升趋势;最近60年(1949—2008年)和最近30年(1979—2008年)夏季累积高温的线性增长率分别为0.35℃/a和2.88℃/a;夏季累积高温与夏、秋粮产量均存在显著的负相关,相关系数分别为-0.66和-0.62,油料作物对夏季累积高温的变化也有一定的响应,但不如前两者显著,棉花产量对夏季累积高温变化不敏感。

Based on the daily observational temperature data,monthly precipitation anomalies and statistical yearbook data in Nanjing,the climatic response of crop yields to summer cumulative high temperature was analyzed.The results show that summer cumulative high temperature in Nanjing has presented an increasing trend since 1949.The linear growth rate of summer cumulative high temperature over the last 30 years is almost 8 times that over the last 60 years（2.88℃ vs.0.35℃ per year）.Summer cumulative high temperature has significant negative correlations with summer and autumn grain yields,showing a correlation coefficient of-0.66 and-0.62,respectively.Although there is also certain negative correlation between summer cumulative high temperature and the yields of oil-bearing crops,the correlation coefficient is not as significant as the former two.Crop yields show no response to summer cumulatire high temperature.