中国2050年碳排放情景比较

Comparison on China's Carbon Emission Scenarios in 2050

从方法论、情景设置、宏观参数、能源消费量、能源消费结构、碳排放量、碳排放强度等几个方面,对国内外有代表性的6个中国碳排放情景研究进行了比较。在维持现有政策框架的基准情景下,尽管中国未来的能源结构持续优化,碳排放强度持续下降,但中国2050年的二氧化碳排放量将显著增长,排放量为119亿～162亿t。通过一定的低碳发展政策,在比较情景下,能源结构的优化和碳排放强度的下降更加明显,2050年碳排放量显著下降,排放量为43亿～95亿t。

Several representative studies on China’s carbon emission scenarios in 2050 were compared in someaspects, such as methodology, scenario settings, macro parameters, energy consumption, energy consumption structure,carbon emission and carbon intensity. Under the baseline scenario of present policy framework, future energy structurewill be optimized and carbon emission intensity will decrease continually, but China’s carbon emission in 2050 stillhas a significant increase, and the carbon emission will reach 11.9-16.2 Gt CO2 in 2050. By strengthening lowcarbon policy, under comparative scenarios, the optimization of energy structure and the decline of carbon emissionintensity will be more obvious; and the carbon emission in 2050 will decrease significantly, China’s carbon emissionwill be 4.3-9.5 Gt CO2 in 2050.