基于误差修正模型的能源消费与经济增长关系研究

Error Correction Model Based on Energy Consumption and Economic Growth

基于误差修正模型理论,从变量的平稳性检验、变量间的因果关系检验、变量间的协整检验和误差修正模型角度,利用我国1978～2009年能源消费总量和国民生产总值数据进行实证研究,建立了能源消费与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系模型和误差修正模型;通过格兰杰因果性检验,表明能源消费与经济增长之间存在单项因果关系。数量关系模型的建立,为合理处理二者之间的关系提供了数理依据。

Based on the theory of error correction model, from the variable stability test, test the causal relationship between variables, co integration between the variables and the error correction model point of view, the use of total energy consumption in China 1978-2009 and GDP data empirical studies, the establishment of energy consumption and economic growth of long-term equilibrium relationship between the model and error correction model; through the Granger causality test, that the energy consumption and economic growth causal relationship between the individual. Relationship model number for the rational treatment of the relationship between the two provides a mathematical basis.