汽轮机热力性能的概率设计法

A PROBABILISTIC DESIGN METHOD FOR THERMAL PERFORMANCE OF STEAM TURBINES

提出了汽轮机热力性能的概率设计法。该方法以现有的汽轮机热力性能计算公式和方法为基础，考虑了设计量离散性的影响，使用概率论和统计学来分析制造工艺的离散性对额定参数下运行的汽轮机装置的电功率和热耗的影响。还介绍了汽轮机热力设计计算量离散性的产生原因和热力设计计算量的分布参数的确定方法。

This paper presents a probabilistic design method for thermal performance of steam turbines. Based on existing thermal performance calculation formulas and methods for steam turbines and taking into consideration the discretization effect of various design magnitudes, the method analyzes the discretizing effect of manufacturing processes on output and heat consumption of steam turbine sets operating under rated steam conditions with the help of probability and statistics. The origin of discretization of design magnitudes in thermal calculations is explained and a way of determining their distribution parameters described. The formula for finding the mean value and standard deviation of the internal output of both straight and twisted blades is given, as well as a probabilistic method for calculating and analyzing output and heat consumption of steam turbine sets, together with some practical examples.