淮河流域洪涝变化可预报时间研究

THE PREDICTABLE PERIOD OF THE FLOOD SERIES IN HUAIHE RIVER BASIN

在先前研究的淮河流域洪涝变化基本特征、混饨特征、耗散性等基础上，采用Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｒｏｖ熵和Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数谱分析了淮河流域洪涝变化的可预报时间。研究表明，淮河流域洪涝变化长期不可预报，短期是可以预报的，其可预报时间为４～６年，以４年为较合适。

Based on the Preceding research for basic and chaotic characteristics as well as the dissipationof the flood series in Huaihe River Basin, the predictable period of the flood series in the Basin isanalyzed by means of the Kolmogorov entropy and Lyapunov exponent spectrum. The two importantparameters demonstrate the divergence of the phase space trajectory in chaotic syStem. The studyshows that the long-time prediction is impossible, while the short-time prediction is practical. Thepredictable period of the flood in Huaihe River Basin is 4 to 6 years. The predictable period of 4years may be more proper.