电力系统负荷预报的模糊理论方法

Fuzzy Set Method of Electrical Load Forecasting

基于电力负荷预测工作是整个电力系统规划设计和安全运行的基础，将模糊理论应用到电力系统的负荷预报中，建立了电力负荷预测的模糊时间序列模型．提出了确定系统模糊度最小的方法，并将其应用于实际的电力负荷预报工作．结果表明，该模型预测可以达到较高的精度，效果良好．

Forecasting accuracy is of an utmost importance to the power network construction, which needs huge investments. In this paper, fuzzy set theory was applied to the load forecasting to set up a fuzzy time series load forecasting model, At the same time, a method to find the minimum fuzzy degree for the system was also proposed and used in the practical load forecasting. The result shows that this model could provide not only more accurate calculating outcome but also a believable range of the load. The latter does great importance to the electrical network planning. The model is quite effective and useful.