混沌预测技术在径流预报中的应用

The Application of Chaotic Prediction Technique in Runoff Forecast

以多条河流的径流时间序列为例详细分析了基于混沌动力学的局部预测方法，并与全局方法和基于随机理论的ＡＲ（ｐ） 模型等预测方法进行了对比，结果表明，局部预测方法往往优于其他预测方法．

The local forecasting method based on the chaos dynamics is studied with the runoff time series of many rivers as examples. The new method is compared with other methods, such as global method and AR( p ) model, and it is found that the local method is always better than other ones on the results obtained.