基于动态事件树的安全风险分析方法

The Method of Safety Risk Analysis Based on Dynamic Event Tree

针对系统安全分析过程中,传统静态方法的局限性和现有动态方法的侧重点不同,对动态事件树分析方法进行了研究,给出了其基本理论概念,描述了基本建模过程。以某冷却缓冲装置的安全控制为例,实现了动态事件树的建模方法,通过仿真得到了该装置随时间演化过程中的动态行为及其事故演化的路径、时间和概率等信息。分析结果验证了动态事件树分析方法在动态概率安全分析中的有效性和适用性。

Due to the limitation of traditional static methods and the difference of dynamic methods emphasize on in the system safety analysis, the method of Dynamic Event Tree analysis （DETA） is introduced. The basic the- ory and modeling process of DETA are presented. For illustrating the DETA, the safety control analysis of cooling buffer equipment is taken as an example. Furthermore, the dynamic behavior with time, and the information about track, time and probability of the accidents are obtained by simulation. The effectiveness and applicability of DETA in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment are validated by this example.