Morlet小波在铜陵降水序列分析中的应用

Applications of Morlet wavelet to the analysis of precipitation series in Tongling city

基于近49a来的年均和月均降水资料,采用Morlet小波分析法对长江中下游铜陵站降水序列进行多时间尺度研究,并用Mann-Kendall法对其做了趋势分析。结果表明:(1)1960-2008年铜陵地区年降水量呈下降趋势,气候倾向率为-11.214 mm/10a。就季节而言,春、夏、秋季均呈下降趋势,只有冬季呈显著上升趋势;(2)小波分析显示年降水序列和季降水序列均存在多个主要周期的变化,小尺度范围内,年季降水突变点增多;(3)目前研究区处于降水枯水期末段,预计在2010年左右研究区将进入一个新的丰水期。

Based on the 49 years annual and monthly precipitation data,Morlet wavelet and Mann-Kendall methods were used to analyze the precipitation series in Tongling city,southern bank of Yangtze River.The results showed that：（1） Annual precipitation decreased at a climate tendency of-11.214 mm/10a during 1960-2008.For seasons,winter precipitation increased significantly while other seasons decreased.（2）The wavelet analysis showed both annual and seasonal precipitation had several kinds of periodic change.Abrupt change points in-creased on small time scales.（3） The research area was in the terminal cyclical period of low-water.It was pre-dicted that a new cyclical period of high-water would come around in 2010.