量化宽松、财政赤字与美元资产安全

Quantitative Easing,Fiscal Deficit and Safety of U.S. Dollar Assets

次贷危机爆发以来,美国采取了一系列货币和财政政策以拯救深陷泥潭的本国经济。美联储运用非常规政策工具向金融体系注入大量流动性资产,美联邦政府也大幅度提高了财政支出,使得财政赤字愈加恶化。在此背景下,美元资产的安全性成为投资者关注的焦点。本文分别从货币政策效果、财政赤字的可持续性以及投资主体等方面考察了美元资产的安全性,分析了美国宏观经济政策的实际作用,并从投资主体结构探讨了美国联邦政府的经济取向,最后以所涉及资产的市场表现回应美元资产安全问题。笔者认为,与其它货币资产相比,持有美元资产并不会承担额外的币种风险。

Since the outbreak of the sub- prime debt crisis, the U. S. has taken a mixture of monetary and fiscal policies to rescue the economy deeply mired in the depression. The Fed adopted unconventional monetary policy tools to inject much liquidity into the financial system, resulting in a rapid growth in monetary base. Meanwhile, the federal government increased its spending by a large margin to cope with the crisis, thereby worsening its deficit. The safety of U. S. dollar assets has merited the attention of investors. With regard to such worry, the thesis examines safety issue from points of views of monetary policy effectiveness, sustainability of fiscal policy and bond holders. Using pro-growth as a yardstick, the paper examines the impacts of U. S. macroeconomic policy options, attempts to forecast its future policy tilt by keeping in mind the composition of investors of various bonds under question, and finally provides answers to the questions sttrrounding U. S. dollar assets using the market performance of these assets. The paper finds that compared with other currency-denominated assets, holding U. S. dollar assets does not incur extra risk.