中美CPI传导机制和动态关系的计量分析

An Econometric Analysis of Conduction Mechanism and Dynamic Relationship of Sino-US CPI

应用时间序列分析方法对2000年1月到2011年1月间我国与美国CPI传导机制与动态关系进行了计量分析。结果表明中美两国的CPI之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,美国CPI对我国CPI的长期弹性为0.5116;美国CPI对我国CPI的影响较大,并存在3个月的滞后期,但6个月后,中美CPI之间将产生明显的相互影响。因此,我国在进行CPI管理过程中,应加强对与我国经贸往来密切的国家或地区的CPI的监控,并及时采取调控措施,避免我国物价受境外物价波动的严重冲击。

Time Series Analysis Method was applied to analyze the CPI transmission mechanism and dynamic relationship between China and the U. S. with data from January 2000 to January 2011. Results shows that there existed long- term stable equilibrium relationship of Sino- us CPI. The long- term elasticity of China＇ s CPI on the American CPI was 0. 5116. The transmission mechanism of Sino - us CPI is the influence of the American CPI on China is larger. The impact of the American CPI on China had 3 months lag phase. But the CPI of China and the United States will produce evident interactian after six months. Therefore, China should strengthen the monitoring of CPI of those countries or regions that economic and trade ties with China closely in the process of CPI management, and take timely regulation measures to avoid serious shocks by the price iluctuation overseas.