基于随机预测的青岛海湾大桥桥墩防腐维修措施成本优化

Cost Optimization of Corrosion Maintenance Measures for Qingdao Bay Bridge Piers Based on Stochastic Prediction

以氯离子渗透理论和全寿命周期成本理论为基础,采用蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法,对海工混凝土桥墩的维护维修措施进行了对比分析,以期在保证安全性、适用性的前提下达到降低维修维护成本的目的。首先对青岛海湾大桥桥墩使用寿命进行随机预测;其次,对单项维护维修措施进行随机模拟;第三,对各种措施综合使用方案进行随机模拟;最后,计算各种综合方案的费用,分析比较,给出结论和建议。该方法考虑了氯离子扩散的随机性,结合维护维修措施的作用机理,建立了一套综合维护方案下的成本计算流程。通过最终成本计算结果,决策者可根据工程实际选取适合本工程的维护维修方案,并为维护管理概预算提供依据。

According to the theories of chlorion penetration and life cycle cost analysis,the maintenance and repair measures for concrete piers in marine environment was comparatively analyzed through Monte Carlo simulation to minimize the maintenance cost under the premise of ensuring the safety and applicability.First,stochastic prediction for the service life of Qingdao Bay Bridge piers was carried out.Second,the stochastic simulation for single maintenance or repair measure was given.Third,the stochastic simulation for composite measures was performed.Finally,the costs of different comprehensive measures were calculated and compared for conclusion and recommendation.Combined with the mechanism of maintenance and repair measures,the method taken the randomness of chlorion diffusion into account and established a complete cost calculation process for the maintenance program.By the cost result,the decision-makers can select specific maintenance and repair scheme for their own project based on present engineering practice.In addition,the method can provide a reference for maintenance budget.