信用摩擦与中国经济波动

Credit Friction and China＇s Economic Fluctuation

本文构建了一个用于分析由信用摩擦和名义债务合同引致的金融加速器效应和债务一紧缩效应对经济波动影响的动态随机一般均衡模型。分析表明，金融加速器效应和债务一紧缩效应的共同作用减弱了货币政策冲击的影响，放大了生产率冲击作用，并部分抵消了货币需求冲击、价格加成冲击及工资加成冲击对经济的紧缩作用，产出和通货膨胀无论在短期还是长期都较多地受到生产率冲击的影响，而货币政策冲击对中国经济波动的影响非常微弱。

This paper introduces the credit friction and nominal debt contracts into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model for studying the effects of financial accelerator and the debt-deflation on China＇s economic fluctuation. Impulse response analysis shows that the finan- cial accelerator and the debt-deflation effect jointly weaken the effect of monetary policy shock on economy, and strengthen productivity shock＇s effect, while partially offset the impacts of certain shocks, such as money demand shock, price markup shock and wage markup shock. Variance decomposition and historical decomposition indicate that productivity shock accounts for most of the volatility of output and inflation both in the short and long run. However, the impact of monetary policy shock on China＇s economic fluctuations is very weak.