基于灰色系统理论的江苏省入境旅游研究

Research on Inbound Tourism of Jiangsu Province Based-on Gray Theory

入境旅游是旅游业的重要组成部分,本文运用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联度分析方法对江苏省旅游外汇收入与主要客源国入境旅游人次数之间的关联性进行分析,并建立了GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对江苏省典型创汇国未来的入境旅游客流规模进行预测,为江苏省入境旅游提供决策依据和方法参考。

Inbound tourism is an important component part of the development of Jiangsu Province tourism industry. The paper uses gray correlation of gray system theory analysis to analyze the relevance between the tourism foreign exchange earnings and the major source countries in Jiangsu Province and establish the GM （1,1）Gray forecasting model to predict the number of inbound tourism of major source countries in the future for Jiangsu Province inbound tourism policy-making.