阿勒泰西部过去近600年夏季气候变化及未来10年趋势预估

The summer climatic variations in the western Aletai region,Xinjiang Province during the last 600 years and the variation trend prediction for the next 10 years

利用树轮宽度资料重建的阿勒泰西部历史平均气温和降水量序列以及这一地区的气象观测资料,对阿勒泰西部夏季气候进行了年代际尺度的变化分析。分析结果表明:阿勒泰西部夏季平均气温以40-60 a的变化准周期为主,同时存在有11 a左右和21 a左右的变化准周期;而夏季降水量则以29 a左右的变化准周期为主,同时存在有9 a左右和60-74 a的变化准周期。阿勒泰西部夏季平均气温在1684年前后、1772年前后、1839年前后、1909年前后、1959年前后发生了由低向高的突变,在1713年前后、1746年前后、1802年前后、1859年前后发生了由高向低的突变;而其夏季降水量在1635年前后发生了由少向多的突变,在1519年前后发生了由多向少的突变。自1640 s起至2000 s,阿勒泰西部夏季年代际气候变化是以暖干和暖湿为主。基于2010-2019年气候预估结果,这一地区夏季气候在未来2010 s将进入一个暖干期。

In this paper,the reconstructed average temperature and precipitation series which were reconstructed by the tree-ring width data and the meteorological data were used to analyze the summer climatic variations in the western Aletai prefecture.The average temperature series had the main variant period of 40-60a and the other variant period of 11a and 21a.The precipitation series had the main variant period of 29a and the other variant period of 9a and 60-74a.The abrupt variations of average temperature occurred in 1684,1713,1746,1772,1802,1839,1859,1909 and 1959,and the abrupt variations of precipitation occurred in 1519 and 1635.There were warm-dry periods and warm-wet periods more than cold-dry periods and cold-wet periods in the western Aletai prefecture from 1640s to 2000s.Based on the prediction of the variation,the summer climate will become warm and dry in the 2010s.