黄河三角洲地区气候变化特征及其对气候生产力的影响

The characteristics of climate change and the influence on climate productivity in Yellow River Delta

为了揭示在全球变暖大背景下,黄河三角洲地区的气候变化趋势及气候生产力对其的响应,根据1959-2009年的气象资料,在运用数理统计方法分析了该区气候变化特征的基础上,利用Thornthwaite Memori-al模型计算了气候生产力,并借助滑动t检验法进行了突变分析。结果表明:年平均气温以0.373℃/10a的速率递增,大于华北地区的增温速率,突变年为1994年,冬季对年均温升高的贡献率最大;年降水量年际变化波动剧烈,但总体变化不大;年蒸发量和相对湿度都呈波动下降趋势;年降水量与气候生产力的相关性最显著,对气候生产力的影响程度远大于气温;气候生产力60、80年代为负距平,70、90年代和近10a为正距平,"冷湿"气候对该区气候生产力有利,最大正距平百分率为6.1%,"冷干"气候最不利,最大负距平百分率为10.7%。因此,在进行"黄三角"开发规划时应充分考虑气候变暖的影响。

In order to reveal the trend of climate change and the response of climate productivity in Yellow River Delta on global warming,we analyses the characteristics of climate change,according to the data of climate in 1959～2009,using symbolic statistics.Meanwhile we calculated the climate productivity in this area with Thornthwaite Memorial Model,and verified the mutation of climate using t-test technique.The results showed that the average annual temperature increased at the rate of 0.373℃/10a,which was greater than the northern part of China;The mutation was 1994;The contribution of increased temperature in winter to the annual of average temperature was the largest of the whole season.The annual fluctuation of annual precipitation changed tempestuously,however,the whole changed little;The annual evaporation and relative humidity declined fluctuant;The correlation of annual precipitation to climate productivity was significant,which was higher than the climate.The climate productivity was higher than normal during the 60s～80s,but in the 70s,90s,and nearly 10a,it was lower than normal.Cold-wetting climate was favorable for climatic productivity in the area,and the largest percentage of positive anomaly was 6.1%,and contrarily cold-drying climate was the worst,and the largest percentage of negative anomaly was 10.7%.So it is necessary to consider the effect of climate change when doing programs in the area of yellow River Delta.