预期组合：将不确定性纳入预期理论的新方法

Expectation Combination:A New Method Through Including Uncertainty in Expectation Theory

不确定性是经济预期与决策的基本特征之一。然而现代预期理论尤其是理性预期学派,将不确定性视为影响理性预期的干扰因素,想方设法对其进行简化与排除。预期理论的反不确定性倾向与现代风险投资的实践发生了背离。通过对理性预期学派"孤岛模型"的预期决策检验,指出理性预期学派过于简化预期中不确定性的问题,提出了预期组合这一将不确定性纳入预期理论的新方法,探索如何在不确定条件下分析诸多不确定因素之间的逻辑关系,形成更加合理的预期,进而更早把握进行科学决策的机遇。

Uncertainty is one of the primary characteristics of the economic expectation and decision.However,modern expectation school,in particular rational expectation school,deems uncertainty as a disturbing factor affecting the rational expectation and makes every effort to simplify and exclude it.This anti-uncertainty trend demonstrated from the expectation theory deviates from the practice of modern risk investment.This dissertation examines the expectation decision of the rational expectation school＇s ＂isolated island model＂ to reveal the school＇s problematic over-simplification of uncertainty in expectation,propose the new method of expectation combination through including uncertainty in the expectation theory,and explore how to analyze the logic relations of a great many uncertain factors under uncertain conditions,so as to generate more reasonable expectations and seize the opportunities of scientific decision-making earlier.