太湖流域湖西区入湖水量变化趋势及成因分析

Changing trend of water entering western area of Taihu Lake Basin and causal analysis

在收集、整理1986—2007年太湖流域湖西区实测入湖水量的基础上,从区域降雨量、水资源开发利用以及沿江口门引江水量变化等方面对湖西区入湖水量的变化趋势以及主导影响因素进行分析。结果表明,2000年前,降雨量为影响入湖水量变化的主导因素;随着湖西区沿江口门工况条件的改变,2000年后,引江水量成为影响入湖水量的一个重要因素。建议加强沿江口门的统一调度,丰水年份可通过优化调度,使本区域的洪水北排长江,以控制入湖水量,保障区域及流域防洪安全;平、枯水年份可适时引水,提高区域及流域水资源保障能力。

Based on the measured water entering the western area of Taihu Lake from 1986 and 2007,the changing trend and influence factors of the water entering the western area of Taihu Lake were analyzed in terms of regional rainfall,water resources development,and the volume change of the water diversion from the Yangtze River.The results showed that the rainfall was the dominant factor influencing water entering Taihu Lake before 2000.After 2000,the volume of the water diversion from the Yangtze River was an important factor influencing water entering Taihu Lake.It is suggested that the entrance along the Yangtze River should be uniformly regulated.In wet years,the flood of the area is drained northward to the Yangtze River,in order to control the water entering Taihu Lake and ensure the flood control safety of the area and basin.In normal and dry years,water can be diverted appropriately to improve the guaranteed capacity of water resources.