基于VAR模型的城镇化、工业化与金融发展动态分析——以河北省为例

A dynamic analysis of the VAR urbanization,industrialization and financial development——A case study of Hebei province

运用1978—2007年河北省城镇化、工业化与金融发展的相关数据,通过建立VAR模型,采用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等检验技术分析三者之间的内在关系,结果显示:金融发展、工业化显著促进城镇化的发展,同时金融发展对工业化的进程也有显著的影响;城镇化水平提升对来自金融发展的随机扰动具有正效应,并且随着时间的延续,这种效应不断增强,而工业化的发展在前期对城镇化有正效应,后期将转为负效应;方差分解结果表明,金融发展对城镇化的贡献比工业化大。

This paper reveals an empirical study done over the data from 1978-2007 by the vector autoregression model, Johansen testing, Granger causality testing in relation to the urbanization, industrialization and financial development of Hebei province. Result shows that financial development is significant for industrialization and urbanization respectively. The industrialization is positive at the initial stage, but negative by the later stage. Result of the square deviation shows that financial development is more significant for urbanization than industrialization.