汇率制度与宏观经济政策环境——以加拿大为例

Open-economy Exchange Rate Regime and Macroeconomic Policy Options——Case of Canada

加拿大属于典型的资源性经济,加元的汇率变化多受国际商品和石油价格的影响,超出了国内货币政策的控制范围,是独立浮动或是固定汇率?经过两次试验后,加拿大政府坚定地选择了独立浮动汇率制度,并最终实现了汇率政策与货币政策脱离,以此给予了加拿大银行较大的决策空间,使后者专注于维持较低的通货膨胀环境。同时,加拿大政府努力为汇率制度创造有利的宏观经济政策环境,财政政策和货币政策分工明确、相互支持,为汇率制度和经济增长奠定了可持续的坚实基础。本文以加拿大浮动汇率制度为主线,从财政政策、货币政策、政策搭配角度讨论其宏观经济政策框架,分析加元汇率制度的运行环境。在此基础上,本文探讨加拿大汇率政策及浮动汇率制度的作用与功能。本文第五部分对加拿大银行提出的汇率预测模型作出了较深入的分析。

Since Canada is a resources economy,the movements of Canadian dollar exchange rates are subject to changes in prices of commodities and crude oil on global markets and are beyond the zone of influence of domestic monetary policy.Independnet floating or fixed peg？ That is the question.After two trials,the Government of Canada chose without any more hesitation independent floating,and eventually divorced exchange rate policy from monetary policy,giving greater autonomy to the Bank of Canada,who can focus on creating a low-inflation environment.Meanwhile,the federal government tried hard to foster a favourable environment for the exchange rate policy by clearly defining and the policy goals of monetary policy and fiscal ploicy and mixing appropriately the two major policy instruments,thereby laying a solid foundation for sustainability of the rate regime and economic growth.The paper focuses on the Canadian flexible exchange rate regime,examines aspects of Canadian fiscal policy,monetary policy and their interactions,and pays close attention to the role of the floating exchange rate regime as a ＂shock absorber＂.