出口贸易与能源消费关系的实证分析——以广西出口贸易为例

Export Trade and Energy Consumption Empirical Analysis of the Relationship——Export Trade in Guangxi as an Example

本文运用格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对广西出口贸易与能源消费之间的因果、动态关系进行了实证检验与分析。结果发现:广西出口贸易与能源消费之间存在双向因果关系,出口贸易波动对能源消费产生持续负向影响,出口贸易对能源消费具有较强的依赖性;能源消费波动对出口贸易造成较大正向影响;随着时间的推移,这种影响对方波动所做出的贡献率呈现不断增大趋势。在当前能源供给压力趋紧的情势下,为保持出口贸易持续快速增长,实现节能减排目标,广西需要优化出口产品结构,降低高能耗产品出口比例,同时促进外贸生产企业创新,发展节能技术,大幅提高能源利用效率。

This paper,by means of Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition,aims at empirically testing and analyzing the causality and dynamic relationship between the export trade and energy consumption in Guangxi.The result of the study shows that there is a two-way causality relationship between the export trade and energy consumption in Guangxi,export trade greatly depends on energy consumption,the fluctuation of export trade has a sustainable effect on energy consumption,and vice versa.With the current short supply of energy,in order to keep the sustainable development of export trade,Guangxi should take such countermeasures as optimizing export product structure,reducing the export of high-energy consumption products,encouraging enterprises producing exports to make innovation and develop energy saving technology so as to achieve high efficiency of energy.